Evaluering 2007

Evaluering af meningsmålinger op til folketingsvalget d. 13/11-2007:

Evalueringer af valgperiodens meningsmålinger
MålingDato/tidAbs.Kvd.
Gallup2007-10-24 00:010.981.14
Megafon2007-10-24 00:030.981.21
Capacent Epinion2007-10-24 00:041.261.64
Catinét2007-10-24 00:061.161.67
Synovate2007-10-24 00:091.241.44
Capacent Epinion2007-10-24 18:451.421.87
Megafon2007-10-25 00:031.001.20
Capacent Epinion2007-10-25 00:041.221.53
Synovate2007-10-25 00:091.641.89
Gallup2007-10-26 00:011.121.50
Capacent Epinion2007-10-26 00:041.021.20
Synovate2007-10-26 00:091.662.01
Gallup2007-10-27 00:011.221.71
Capacent Epinion2007-10-27 00:041.021.29
Catinét2007-10-27 00:061.382.12
Rambøll2007-10-27 00:081.061.40
Synovate2007-10-27 00:091.561.93
Gallup2007-10-28 00:011.161.73
Megafon2007-10-28 00:030.961.37
Capacent Epinion2007-10-28 00:041.281.73
Catinét2007-10-28 00:061.161.79
Synovate2007-10-28 00:091.462.08
Gallup2007-10-29 00:011.141.75
Megafon2007-10-29 00:031.221.68
Capacent Epinion2007-10-29 00:041.441.85
Catinét2007-10-29 00:061.602.47
Synovate2007-10-29 00:091.502.32
Gallup2007-10-30 00:011.001.46
Megafon2007-10-30 00:031.281.89
Capacent Epinion2007-10-30 00:041.241.63
Catinét2007-10-30 00:061.662.37
Synovate2007-10-30 00:091.402.21
Gallup2007-10-31 00:010.901.21
Capacent Epinion2007-10-31 00:041.081.45
Catinét2007-10-31 00:061.542.16
Synovate2007-10-31 00:091.242.06
Gallup2007-11-01 00:010.901.15
Megafon2007-11-01 00:031.842.47
Capacent Epinion2007-11-01 00:040.761.21
Catinét2007-11-01 00:061.462.16
Synovate2007-11-01 00:091.281.94
Gallup2007-11-02 00:010.821.09
Capacent Epinion2007-11-02 00:040.761.11
Catinét2007-11-02 00:061.422.08
Greens2007-11-02 00:071.201.73
Synovate2007-11-02 00:091.361.89
Gallup2007-11-03 00:010.921.25
Megafon2007-11-03 00:031.081.60
Capacent Epinion2007-11-03 00:040.861.25
Catinét2007-11-03 00:061.461.89
Rambøll2007-11-03 00:080.861.14
Synovate2007-11-03 00:091.281.78
Gallup2007-11-04 00:010.821.15
Megafon2007-11-04 00:031.281.78
Capacent Epinion2007-11-04 00:041.041.49
Catinét2007-11-04 00:061.461.85
Synovate2007-11-04 00:091.101.63
Gallup2007-11-05 00:010.881.19
Megafon2007-11-05 00:031.101.68
Capacent Epinion2007-11-05 00:040.901.03
Catinét2007-11-05 00:061.101.46
Synovate2007-11-05 00:090.941.37
Gallup2007-11-06 00:010.660.92
Megafon2007-11-06 00:031.402.01
Capacent Epinion2007-11-06 00:040.841.02
Catinét2007-11-06 00:060.841.13
Synovate2007-11-06 00:090.961.45
Gallup2007-11-07 00:010.901.15
Capacent Epinion2007-11-07 00:040.720.99
Catinét2007-11-07 00:060.841.13
Synovate2007-11-07 00:091.141.61
Gallup2007-11-08 00:010.520.74
Megafon2007-11-08 00:031.081.56
Catinét2007-11-08 00:060.861.13
Synovate2007-11-08 00:091.181.58
Gallup2007-11-09 00:010.600.75
Capacent Epinion2007-11-09 00:040.740.95
Catinét2007-11-09 00:061.201.36
Rambøll2007-11-09 00:080.841.12
Synovate2007-11-09 00:091.101.44
Gallup2007-11-10 00:010.540.72
Megafon2007-11-10 00:031.321.63
Capacent Epinion2007-11-10 00:040.740.87
Catinét2007-11-10 00:061.021.37
Synovate2007-11-10 00:090.841.15
Gallup2007-11-11 00:010.540.73
Megafon2007-11-11 00:030.440.58
Capacent Epinion2007-11-11 00:040.761.02
Catinét2007-11-11 00:060.941.28
Synovate2007-11-11 00:090.921.23
Gallup2007-11-12 00:010.540.79
Megafon2007-11-12 00:030.260.32
Capacent Epinion2007-11-12 00:040.460.66
Catinét2007-11-12 00:060.941.28
Greens2007-11-12 00:070.560.80
Rambøll2007-11-12 00:080.520.80
Synovate2007-11-12 00:090.861.29
Zapera2007-11-13 00:020.760.94
Capacent Epinion2007-11-13 00:040.520.65
Catinét2007-11-13 00:060.360.48
Synovate2007-11-13 00:090.701.17
Sentio2007-11-13 00:130.721.09
Gallup2007-11-13 12:000.400.61


NB: Dette gennemsnit er beregnet med en tidsvægtningd=0.15, da periodens længde blot er 20 dage. Det tids og frekvensvægtede snit af meningsmålingerne i valgperioden rammer ved siden af som vist her:

Fejl: Snit af meningsmålinger – Valgresultat
Liste Parti Stemmer
Øvrige 0.21
A Socialdemokraterne 0.17
B Radikale Venstre 0.37
C Konservative Folkeparti 0.18
F Socialistisk Folkeparti 0.15
K Kristendemokraterne 0.05
O Dansk Folkeparti -1.73
V Venstre -0.73
Y Ny Alliance 1.00
Ø Enhedslisten 0.33

Det er især værd at bemærke, hvor meget meningsmålingerne rammer ved siden af for Dansk Folkeparti. Når man tænker over at dette er et gennemsnit af 98 meningsmålinger over blot 20 dage, så er den afvigelse ret markant. Dette tyder på en systematisk underrapportering af DFs andel af stemmerne i forbindelse med meningsmålinger. Årsagen til dette kunne sagtens skyldes den politiske hetz imod DF, som gør borgere i Danmark utrygge ved at sige at de vil stemme på DF.







NB: Greens Analyseinstitut, Rambøll, Sentio og Zapera lavede hver kun 1-4 meningsmålinger/Exit Polls i valgerioden. Det er så få datapunkter at det ikke giver mening at se på dem som separate grafer.

Dette indlæg blev udgivet i Evaluering, Grafik. Bogmærk permalinket.